If you ask a European soccer fan in this country to name the only club to play in the Bundesliga First Division every season since its founding in 1963, most would answer Bayern München. Most would be wrong.
It's Hamburger Sport Verein (HSV), from the northern city-state of Hamburg. They've been in the First Division 54 years, 260 days according to their website, which tracks it to the second. But that may come to an end this Saturday. It's not over but things sure aren't looking good.
I follow HSV because our dear friends Georg, Gabi and Daniel Jarzembowski have lived in Hamburg since the Bundesliga was a baby. That and it's a very cool city - similar to Philadelphia in size and with a huge port. And I know they have struggled the last three seasons to avoid relegation.
In two of the last four years their fate was decided in a two game play-off after 34-match season. In 2014 they stayed alive by a one-goal differential. In 2015 they were 12 minutes from relegation when it tied the game, went ahead in overtime and saw their keeper stop of penalty in stoppage time.
After that history, this weekend should be a breeze. We got 'em where we want 'em, right? The bottom two teams of the 18-team league are automatically kicked down to the Second Division while the 16th place team gets to play a home-and-away total goal series with the third place team in the Second Division. HSV is in 17th place, two points behind Wolfsburg.
If Wolfsburg wins at home over last place FC Köln (Cologne), it's over for HSV, so they will be cheering mightily for Köln, keeping an eye on the scoreboard. If Hamburg loses at home to 9th place Borussia Mönchengladbach, it's just as over. If Hamburg wins and Wolfsburg loses, Hamburg is in the play-off against Holstein Kiel, another northern city. If Wolfsburg ties, then HSV will need to win by 10 goals, which is not going to happen.
Prediction: Hamburg's luck has run out and they and FC Köln will be relegated while Wolfsburg and Kiel will play off. Fortuna Düsseldforf and FC Nurnberg will be promoted to the First Division for 2018-2019.
I hope I'm wrong.
Thursday, May 10, 2018
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